Debt

  • Recipients’ total debt increased by an average of about $1,800 compared to control participants, but the effect is not statistically significant. Because there is so much variation, we cannot rule out decreases in debt of as much as $2,000. 
  • Mortgage debt increases by about $881, but this is also imprecise and not statistically significant.
  • Auto loan balances increased by about $805.* 
  • Student loan debt decreased by $200, though there was enough variation that we cannot rule out moderate increases or decreases in student loan balances.
  • The effects of the transfer on other types of debt are small and there is less variation, allowing us to rule out large increases or decreases. 
    • For example, we can conclude that the transfer did not increase credit card balances by more than $400 or decrease them by more than $300.  

* The effect on auto loans is significant at the p < 0.01 level prior to adjustment for multiple comparisons but is not significant after the false discovery rate (FDR) adjustment.